Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Major Barriers in the Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.